← All calls
ElectionResolvedHit★ featured
Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls
Will Nathan Turek win the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
66%
(55-75%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 66% on May 28, 2026 when Kalshi was at 35%.
Market still at 35% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
EHIQ has Nathan Turek as the favorite (~66%) to win the Iowa Democratic Senate primary, against a market (Kalshi) that has him around 35%. The two public polls of this race disagree by nearly 40 points — one favors each candidate — so a poll-based read collapses to a coin flip and carries no information. Our language-based signal favors Turek. We haircut the conviction deliberately because intra-party primaries are a lower-confidence regime for the method than general elections. Direction: a market FADE, logged before the vote.
- 1.The two public polls are ~38 points apart — one favors each candidate. A poll-aggregation read can't separate them; it lands on a coin flip with no signal.
- 2.Our language-based signal favors Turek; the market (Kalshi) favors Wahls at roughly 63-65%.
- 3.Intra-party primaries are a lower-confidence regime than general elections, so we widen the band rather than claim full signal strength — the call is haircut from a raw ~75% to ~66%.
- 4.This is a market FADE logged before the vote. Resolves on primary day, June 2, 2026.
Resolution
Outcome
YES
Resolved
June 3, 2026
Turek won the Iowa Democratic Senate primary 62.6% to Wahls 37.4% (AP projected 2026-06-02, 98%+ counted). EHIQ called Turek at 65-66% against Kalshi's 35%, a +30pp market-fade that paid. The gate-derived call (TIQ + SEM after Layer-3 intra-party haircut) was direction-correct and conviction-correct. Strongest single-call market-fade hit since Brexit (59-day lead) and Biden-Hur (164-day lead). Turek now faces Rep. Ashley Hinson in the November general.
Opened
May 28, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026
Get an alert the moment this call resolves.
Every EHIQ call resolves on a date, in public. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.