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Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls

Will Josh Turek win the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ graded opening

66%

Kalshi

35%

live market →

gap vs market

—

The number above is the forecast (polls only)

Language: no read

The call vs the market, dated

Graded opening 66% (May 28). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Kalshi): 35%.

Market still at 35% · 0.0pp from open

Thesis

EHIQ has Josh Turek as the favorite (~66%) to win the Iowa Democratic Senate primary, against a market (Kalshi) that has him around 35%. The two public polls of this race disagree by nearly 40 points — one favors each candidate — so a poll-based read collapses to a coin flip and carries no information. Our language-based signal favors Turek. We haircut the conviction deliberately because intra-party primaries are a lower-confidence regime for the method than general elections. Direction: against the market, logged before the vote.

1.The two public polls are ~38 points apart — one favors each candidate. A poll-aggregation read can't separate them; it lands on a coin flip with no signal.
2.Our language-based signal favors Turek; the market (Kalshi) favors Wahls at roughly 63-65%.
3.Intra-party primaries are a lower-confidence regime than general elections, so we widen the band rather than claim full signal strength — the call is haircut from a raw ~75% to ~66%.
4.This call goes against the market, logged before the vote. Resolves on primary day, June 2, 2026.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

June 3, 2026

Turek won the Iowa Democratic Senate primary 62.6% to Wahls 37.4% (AP projected 2026-06-02, 98%+ counted). EHIQ called Turek at 65-66% against Kalshi's 35%, a +30pp gap against the market, resolved in EHIQ's favour. The gate-derived call (TIQ + SEM after Layer-3 intra-party haircut) was direction-correct and conviction-correct. This is a live call. The Brexit (59-day lead) and Biden-Hur (164-day lead) reads are backtests, scored after the outcome was known, not live calls. Turek now faces Rep. Ashley Hinson in the November general.

Opened

May 28, 2026

Expected resolution

June 2, 2026

Original post

https://x.com/ericjackson/status/2059982652774506829 →

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