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Claudia López win (Colombia 2026)
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
EHIQ
2%
(1-3%)
Edge
0.0pp
within noise
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 2% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 6%.
Market still at 6% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
Wildcard, revised DOWN May 11 after corpus deepening. Initial call at 5% assumed López momentum at 7-12% and rising. Actual April-May trajectory: Invamer polling collapsed 11.7% → 3.6%; Alianza Verde endorsed Cepeda (not her) April 14. Disambiguation: this is Claudia López Hernández (centrist ex-Bogotá mayor, won March 8 Consulta de las Soluciones), NOT Clara López Obregón (Frente Amplio leftist, withdrew April 7, endorsed Cepeda) — some data pipelines may conflate. Path to victory still requires (1) right-wing collapse, (2) Cepeda first-round failure, (3) centrist consolidation around her in runoff — joint probability now 1-3% range given polling deterioration. Watch-list only.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
May 31, 2026
Eliminated in round 1 (2026-05-31): López did not advance to the June 21 runoff (Espriella 43.77% / Cepeda 40.88%). Her Invamer polling had collapsed 11.7%→3.6% and Alianza Verde endorsed Cepeda (2026-04-14). "Will López win the presidency" resolves NO. EHIQ had her at 2% vs Polymarket 6% — correct fade, real-time (isBacktest:false).
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026