Claudia López win (Colombia 2026)

Wildcard, revised DOWN May 11 after corpus deepening. Initial call at 5% assumed López momentum at 7-12% and rising. Actual April-May trajectory: Invamer polling collapsed 11.7% → 3.6%; Alianza Verde endorsed Cepeda (not her) April 14. Disambiguation: this is Claudia López Hernández (centrist ex-Bogotá mayor, won March 8 Consulta de las Soluciones), NOT Clara López Obregón (Frente Amplio leftist, withdrew April 7, endorsed Cepeda) — some data pipelines may conflate. Path to victory still requires (1) right-wing collapse, (2) Cepeda first-round failure, (3) centrist consolidation around her in runoff — joint probability now 1-3% range given polling deterioration. Watch-list only.