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MacroActive★ featured
No Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates at least once in 2026?
EHIQ
40%
(33-47%)
Edge
-7.0pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 40% on July 2, 2026 when Polymarket was at 47%.
Market still at 47% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
A Fed HIKING into a 20-30% risk-asset drawdown, record crypto-ETF outflows, a chip-led equity selloff, AND a +57K July payroll miss is historically rare and self-limiting — tightening financial conditions plus a cracking labor market usually forces a pause, not a hike. The market anchors on 4.2% CPI and Warsh's hawkish tone and underweights the growth crack that printed July 2.
- 1.Structural-risk composite: hiking into a cross-asset drawdown + labor softening is a rare, unstable policy stance.
- 2.The market is anchored on the inflation print (4.2% CPI) and Warsh's Sintra tone, not the July 2 labor data.
- 3.EHIQ regime lens: financial-conditions tightening is doing the Fed's work — the reaction function bends toward pause.
- 4.Honest counter: Warsh is genuinely hawkish and 4.2% inflation is real; a second hot CPI print falsifies this.
Opened
July 2, 2026
Expected resolution
December 31, 2026