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LA mayoral — Nithya Raman first-round winner
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the June 2 2026 LA mayoral primary (first-round winner)?
EHIQ
17%
(14-21%)
Edge
-17.0pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 17% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 34%.
Market still at 34% · 0.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 4 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: reframed from "win the office" to "first-round / primary first-place finish" — matches Polymarket sub-market structure (probs sum to ~1 across field). Prior 24% reflected make-runoff × win-runoff math (55% × 45%); reframed to direct first-round prob. SEM v1.2 ensemble 10.62% (race_id la-mayor-2026-firstround; specificity 10.42/1k, n=16, +0.62pp TIQ adjustment). EHIQ 17% lands above SEM ensemble and below market 0.34 — conservative damping from prior 24% baseline applied: 24 + 0.5*(10.62-24) = 17.31. Corpus thesis on Raman register (high policy specificity + hedge stack on political conviction, 2-on-1 defensive posture in NBC4 May 6 debate) preserved as analytical support.
- 1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 24% → 17% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. Polymarket sub-market structure (Bass 0.45 + Pratt 0.18 + Raman 0.34 ≈ 1.0) is consistent with first-round-winner semantics. Reframed to match. SEM v1.2 ensemble (la-mayor-2026-firstround): SEM 10.0%, ensemble 10.62% (TIQ adjustment +0.62pp; specificity 10.42/1k, n=16, reliability 1.0). Conservative 50% damping from prior: 24 + 0.5 × (10.62 − 24) ≈ 17%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) — TIQ research-internal only. Market 34% remains above EHIQ — divergence flag preserved.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 28, 2026
NBC/ABC7 live results; Raman→2nd as late ballots counted.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026