ElectionResolved

LA mayoral — Karen Bass first-round winner

Will Karen Bass finish first in the June 2 2026 LA mayoral primary (first-round winner)?

EHIQ

66%

(60-72%)

Polymarket

45%

live market →

Edge

+21.0pp

EHIQ above market

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 66% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 45%.

Market still at 45% · 0.0pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 13 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: this market resolves on first-round / primary first-place finish (consistent with Polymarket sub-market structure where candidate probs sum to ~1 across the field, not the 0.5 D-vs-R split a general-only market would produce). Reframed EHIQ from prior "win the office" reading (which held Bass at 43.5% reflecting two-stage make-runoff x win-runoff math) to direct first-round-winner reading. Updated EHIQ 66% reflects SEM v1.2 88.76% ensemble output anchored by Emerson Bass 30 / Pratt 22 / Raman 19 poll, conservative 50% damping toward SEM from the prior 43.5%: 43.5 + 0.5*(88.76-43.5) = 66.1. Range widened to 60-72% acknowledging the question reframe is large.

1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 43.5% → 66% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. Prior EHIQ 43.5% reflected "win the office" two-stage math (make runoff × win runoff). Polymarket sub-market structure (Bass 0.45 + Pratt 0.18 + Raman 0.34 + others ≈ 1.0) is consistent with first-round-winner semantics, not general/runoff (which would split ~0.5 D-vs-R). Reframed to match. SEM v1.2 race_id `la-mayor-2026-firstround`: SEM 90.00%, ensemble 88.76% (TIQ adjustment −1.24pp; specificity Bass 5.71/1k, n=7, reliability 0.6). Conservative 50% damping from prior: 43.5 + 0.5 × (88.76 − 43.5) ≈ 66%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) — TIQ research-internal only, not load-bearing here. Note: prior "two-stage make-runoff-x-win-runoff" thesis is preserved as analysis of the general/runoff path; the /predictions market itself resolves first-round.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

June 28, 2026

ABC7/KTLA projections + Wikipedia 2026 LA mayoral election.

Opened

May 9, 2026

Expected resolution

June 2, 2026