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ElectionActive
LA mayoral — Karen Bass to win
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 LA mayoral election?
EHIQ
44%
(42-45%)
Edge
-15.5pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 44% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 45%.
Market has since moved up to 59% · +14.0pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 11 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Bass cannot get >50% in primary (disapproval -23pp net). Top-2 advances to runoff. The matchup that determines the office is which challenger makes the runoff slot. Bass vs Pratt = comfortable Bass win (Republican in deep-blue LA). Bass vs Raman = D-vs-D coin flip against -23-net-approval incumbent. Net: Bass marginally below market consensus.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 4, 2026