Steve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-place

QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: LARGEST MOVE IN THIS UPDATE — prior EHIQ 9% reflected "win the office" (deep-blue CA Republican constraint). Reframed to primary first-place finish; SEM v1.2 ensemble 41.86% (race_id ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary; specificity 12.19/1k, n=54 — strongest sample in race; +1.07pp TIQ adjustment). Note: /predictions marketProb 0.097 is the EHIQ-internal estimate of joint-prob-of-winning-office which is the legacy semantics; the actual Polymarket first-place sub-market prices Hilton at 0.27 per SEM file market_crosscheck. EHIQ 25% reflects 50% damping from prior 9% baseline: 9 + 0.5*(41.86-9) ≈ 25.4%. Range widened to 18-33% acknowledging the question-semantic reframe is large. Prior Bianco-self-immolation / SurveyUSA-Hilton-20% / GOP-consolidation thesis preserved.