Steve Hilton win (CA Governor 2026)

Polymarket prices Hilton at 9.7% (Vol $19.8M). EHIQ at 9% — converged to market (DIRECTION REVERSED from prior 4% structural fade). Three CNN-debate-era data points justified the move: (1) Hilton was actually in the debate alongside Bianco — first real TIQ corpus on him. (2) SurveyUSA pre-CNN had him leading the field at 20%, which the prior structural read missed entirely — CA Dem-lock dynamics turn out to be less binding at the primary level than assumed. (3) Bianco self-immolated on Collins's fact-check ('I probably did say that') — consolidating GOP vote behind Hilton as the only viable Republican. Same TIQ-pulls-toward-market pattern as Toronto Bradford and CA Becerra refinements — calibration data point that the framework isn't contrarian-by-default. Caveat: 9% uses pre-CNN polling. Post-CNN SurveyUSA refresh should tighten further.