ElectionResolvedHit

Bulgaria — Radev presidential call

Will Rumen Radev win the Bulgarian presidential vote?

EHIQ

85%

Polymarket

95%

Edge

-9.5pp

EHIQ below market

Upstream of markets

Validation milestone

@kupferdose Polymarket chart + exit polls on April 19, 2026

Polymarket showed 94.5% Radev within hours of EHIQ call; exit polls confirmed Radev win.

Thesis

EHIQ called Radev correct on the morning of April 19, before exit polls and before Polymarket fully priced it. Polymarket later showed 94.5% Radev (per @kupferdose on X), confirming alignment. First international election test of the EHIQ register election framework after Brexit / Biden / Carney historical hits.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

April 19, 2026

Radev won the Bulgarian presidential vote. EHIQ called it before Polymarket priced it.

Opened

April 19, 2026

Expected resolution

April 19, 2026