ElectionResolvedNOT SCORED

Bulgaria — Radev National Assembly election call

Will Rumen Radev win the Bulgarian National Assembly election?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

Not graded

last stored figure 85% (not graded)

Polymarket

95%

gap vs market

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The number above is the forecast (polls only)

Language: no read

The call vs the market, dated

Validation milestone

@kupferdose Polymarket chart + exit polls on April 19, 2026

Polymarket showed 94.5% Radev within hours of EHIQ call; exit polls confirmed Radev win.

Thesis

EHIQ called Radev correct on the morning of April 19, before exit polls and before Polymarket fully priced it. Polymarket later showed 94.5% Radev (per @kupferdose on X), confirming alignment. First international election test of the EHIQ register election framework after Brexit / Biden / Carney historical hits.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

April 19, 2026

Radev won the Bulgarian National Assembly election. EHIQ called it before Polymarket priced it.

Opened

April 19, 2026

Expected resolution

April 19, 2026

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