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Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)
Will Drake mention Kendrick Lamar by name on Iceman?
EHIQ
10%
Polymarket
1%
Edge
+9.3pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 10% on April 26, 2026 when Kalshi was at 16%.
Market has since moved down to 1% · -15.3pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 6 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Day 250 (April 26) Embassy Toronto video called Kalshi 16% on a Kendrick mention as overpriced. Drake's structural target on Iceman is UMG/Grainge ("ONE AGAINST ALL") — not Kendrick personally. The structural thesis is about label-side power, and naming Kendrick would dilute the framing. EHIQ fade Kalshi to ~10%.
Opened
April 26, 2026
Expected resolution
May 22, 2026