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ElectionResolved★ featured
Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Will Oh Se-hoon (PPP) retain Seoul mayor in 2026?
EHIQ
15%
(10-20%)
Edge
+5.0pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 15% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 8%.
Market has since moved up to 10% · +2.5pp toward EHIQ view
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Oh at 7.5% — EHIQ at 15% (+7.5pp). Oh's 4-time mayor incumbency stack + Seoul structural conservatism + Korean turnout dynamics favoring older voters compound to give him meaningful upside vs the lock pricing. Election June 3 2026 (under 4 weeks). Same fade-the-near-lock logic as Chong call. Qualitative TIQ-style read only — Korean-language pattern-extraction layer pending native-validator engagement.
Resolution
Outcome
YES
Resolved
June 28, 2026
Korea Herald: Oh wins 5th term, margin 1.15pt / 60,259 votes.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 3, 2026