Oh Se-hoon re-election (Seoul Mayor 2026)

Polymarket prices Oh Se-hoon at 7.5% (Vol $36M, deep consensus). EHIQ at 15% — +7.5pp bullish on incumbency. Oh is a 4-time Seoul mayor (2006, 2010, 2021 by-election, 2022 regular) — personal-brand-incumbency stack stronger than almost any other Korean conservative right now, unique to the Seoul electorate. Seoul structurally more conservative than national average. Korean turnout favors older conservative voters who actually show up; 'shy conservative' effects have surfaced in past Seoul polls. Risks pushing him toward 20%+: Chong scandal/gaffe in next 4 weeks; major Lee Jae-myung controversy dragging DPK; North Korean security event activating national-security voting bloc. Caveat: structural-priors call, no Korean TIQ corpus.