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ElectionResolvedHit
LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
Will Nithya Raman finish second — taking the runoff slot past Spencer Pratt — in the 2026 LA mayoral primary?
EHIQ
18%
(14-24%)
Market
35%
Edge
-17.0pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 55% on May 28, 2026 when the market was at 35%.
Revised to 18% based on new analysis — see thesis updates below for revision history.
Market still at 35% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
EHIQ 18% vs market 35%, -17pp below. Pratt first-place register expansion (now 37%, +19pp above market) collapses the original Raman-second thesis: if Pratt finishes #1 or #2, the joint requirement (someone else #1 AND Raman beats Pratt for #2) becomes narrow.
- 1.2026-05-28 OPEN: EHIQ 55%, low-confidence contrarian. Language-based read leaned Raman to edge Pratt for #2 — narrow (~55%), explicitly flagged structural risk (Pratt celebrity + Trump endorsement, R-consolidation in jungle primary, language signals miss this). Market favored Pratt on raw share. Flagged plainly as high-variance contrarian.
- 2.2026-06-01 PRE-ELECTION UPDATE: EHIQ 55% → 18%. Pratt first-place register expansion lifts his EHIQ to 37% — implying he likely finishes #1 or #2. Joint requirement (someone else #1 AND Raman beats Pratt for #2) is narrow. Original thesis was correct to flag celebrity-name-ID risk as the structural blind spot; structural blind spot won.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 3, 2026
Pratt finished #2 at ~29%, Raman 3rd at ~21% (51% counted, 2026-06-02). Raman did NOT take the #2 runoff slot over Pratt. EHIQ revised 0.55 → 0.18 on 2026-06-01 after the Pratt register-evolution finding; Polymarket was at 0.35. Strong market-fade call: EHIQ correctly faded Raman by 17pp against market consensus. Pratt advances to November runoff against Bass.
Opened
May 28, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026