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ElectionResolvedMiss
LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
Will Nithya Raman finish second — taking the runoff slot past Spencer Pratt — in the 2026 LA mayoral primary?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
18%
(14-24%)
Market
35%
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 28, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
Thesis
EHIQ 18% vs market 35%, -17pp below. Pratt first-place register expansion (now 37%, +19pp above market) collapses the original Raman-second thesis: if Pratt finishes #1 or #2, the joint requirement (someone else #1 AND Raman beats Pratt for #2) becomes narrow.
- 1.2026-05-28 OPEN: EHIQ 55%, low-confidence contrarian. Language-based read leaned Raman to edge Pratt for #2 — narrow (~55%), explicitly flagged structural risk (Pratt celebrity + Trump endorsement, R-consolidation in jungle primary, language signals miss this). Market favored Pratt on raw share. Flagged plainly as high-variance contrarian.
- 2.2026-06-01 PRE-ELECTION UPDATE: EHIQ 55% → 18%. Pratt first-place register expansion lifts his EHIQ to 37% — implying he likely finishes #1 or #2. Joint requirement (someone else #1 AND Raman beats Pratt for #2) is narrow. Original thesis was correct to flag celebrity-name-ID risk as the structural blind spot; structural blind spot won.
Resolution
Outcome
YES
Resolved
August 26, 2026
CORRECTED 2026-08-26. The original verdict was recorded 2026-06-03 on 51% of the count, when Pratt led Raman ~29% to ~21%. Late mail ballots reversed it: final certified result Raman 29.0% (247,781) advanced to the Nov 3 runoff, Pratt 25.5% (217,977) eliminated. Raman DID take the #2 runoff slot, so this call resolves YES and EHIQ's 18% was a MISS against a market at 35% -- the market was closer. Reported by a subscriber. Verdict and archived source: call_resolutions id 3.
Opened
May 28, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026
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