LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
Will Nithya Raman finish second — taking the runoff slot past Spencer Pratt — in the 2026 LA mayoral primary?
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Thesis
- 1.2026-05-28 OPEN: EHIQ 55%, low-confidence contrarian. Language-based read leaned Raman to edge Pratt for #2 — narrow (~55%), explicitly flagged structural risk (Pratt celebrity + Trump endorsement, R-consolidation in jungle primary, language signals miss this). Market favored Pratt on raw share. Flagged plainly as high-variance contrarian.
- 2.2026-06-01 PRE-ELECTION UPDATE: EHIQ 55% → 18%. Pratt first-place register expansion lifts his EHIQ to 37% — implying he likely finishes #1 or #2. Joint requirement (someone else #1 AND Raman beats Pratt for #2) is narrow. Original thesis was correct to flag celebrity-name-ID risk as the structural blind spot; structural blind spot won.
Resolution
CORRECTED 2026-08-26. The original verdict was recorded 2026-06-03 on 51% of the count, when Pratt led Raman ~29% to ~21%. Late mail ballots reversed it: final certified result Raman 29.0% (247,781) advanced to the Nov 3 runoff, Pratt 25.5% (217,977) eliminated. Raman DID take the #2 runoff slot, so this call resolves YES and EHIQ's 18% was a MISS against a market at 35% -- the market was closer. Reported by a subscriber. Verdict and archived source: call_resolutions id 3. [2026-10-18 eric-stamp QAU-D10] Corrected label. EHIQ was 55% at open (ehiq_prob_at_open 0.55, verified) and 18% final (ehiq_prob 0.18). The 2026-08-26 correction fixed the outcome (YES) but graded it on the final 18%, so it read MISS. SCORING_POLICY v1.1 grades the at-open value: 55% on YES with outcome YES is a HIT, which is what the scoreboard already publishes. call_resolutions id 3 recorded verdict 'miss' on the same basis. actual_outcome and every probability are unchanged. Source: https://abc7news.com/post/california-election-results-progressive-nithya-raman-beats-spencer-pratt-take-2nd-spot-los-angeles-mayors-race/19259806/ ("Nithya Raman has defeated Spencer Pratt to advance to a November runoff").
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