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PQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election
Will the Parti Quebecois win 64 or more seats (a majority of 127) in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
55%
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 55% on October 2, 2026 when Polymarket was at 55%.
Thesis
TIQ/LAS debate leg (4 verified French debates, two-ways controlled) reads the four-way opposition split HOLDING: PSPP zero blame / zero core-claim doubt / desperation only as return fire; Milliard the field clearest deterioration; Frechette partial recovery only. Under FPTP with a 5-party field, a held split converts a 30% plurality to seats. Calibration: poll-based seat-model midpoint (~0.49: QC125 0.52, Grenier 0.46) + the language lean -> top of the model range, 0.55. Market coincidence (bands ~0.55) declared as corroboration, never input. Registered FOR THE RECORD at ~0 edge: the falsifier grades the instrument. Blame split pre-registered: PQ>=64 instrument holds; 55-63 the FPTP conversion assumption takes the loss; <55 the dims lied.
Opened
October 2, 2026
Expected resolution
October 6, 2026
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