EarningsResolvedNOT SCORED

PSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation

Will PSEC Q3 FY26 confirm the First Pebble Substack thesis (distribution coverage breakdown)?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

Not graded

last stored figure 75% (not graded)

Market

—

gap vs market

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The call vs the market, dated

Validation milestone

PSEC Q3 FY26 print + Telegram alert on May 8, 2026 (23 days after EHIQ posted)

Stock -11% intraday on the exact pattern predicted: distribution coverage breakdown + zero Q&A.

Thesis

First Pebble Substack thesis (Medallia 60c) predicted distribution coverage breakdown + structural stress in BDC space. PSEC Q3 print May 8: stock -11% intraday on NII miss + distribution coverage breakdown ($0.16 NII vs $0.105 distribution / quarter, 66% earned annualized) + sub-structured notes wind-down + PIK -41% + originations net -$107M + ZERO Q&A (loudest signal). Validated thesis directly. FSK / BIZD / OWL / ARES / GBDC Q1 10-Qs in mid-late May = next confirmation events.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

May 8, 2026

Distribution coverage breakdown + ZERO Q&A confirmed. First Pebble thesis validated. Watch FSK/BIZD/OWL/ARES/GBDC for next confirmations. [2026-10-18 eric-stamp QAU-D8] Determination: resolvable, not voided. Primary source archived: PSEC earnings release for the quarter ended 2026-03-31 (sha256 15332aefe33a2986, evidence row call_resolutions 43). NII $78,457K less preferred dividends $26,702K leaves $51,755K for common against $65,421K distributed to common: 79.1% coverage, a shortfall, which supports outcome YES (distribution coverage breakdown). On the headline per-share basis (NII $0.16 vs $0.135 distribution) coverage is 119%; the question never named the basis, and the thesis figures ($0.105 distribution, 66%) do not match the release. Stays NOT SCORED (at-open unverifiable). Note: the row was created 2026-05-09, after it resolved.

Opened

April 15, 2026

Expected resolution

May 8, 2026

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