EarningsResolvedHit

PSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation

Will PSEC Q3 FY26 confirm the First Pebble Substack thesis (distribution coverage breakdown)?

EHIQ

75%

Market

—

Edge

—

Upstream of markets

Validation milestone

PSEC Q3 FY26 print + Telegram alert on May 8, 2026 (23 days after EHIQ posted)

Stock -11% intraday on the exact pattern predicted: distribution coverage breakdown + zero Q&A.

Thesis

First Pebble Substack thesis (Medallia 60c) predicted distribution coverage breakdown + structural stress in BDC space. PSEC Q3 print May 8: stock -11% intraday on NII miss + distribution coverage breakdown ($0.16 NII vs $0.105 distribution / quarter, 66% earned annualized) + sub-structured notes wind-down + PIK -41% + originations net -$107M + ZERO Q&A (loudest signal). Validated thesis directly. FSK / BIZD / OWL / ARES / GBDC Q1 10-Qs in mid-late May = next confirmation events.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

May 8, 2026

Distribution coverage breakdown + ZERO Q&A confirmed. First Pebble thesis validated. Watch FSK/BIZD/OWL/ARES/GBDC for next confirmations.

Opened

April 15, 2026

Expected resolution

May 8, 2026