Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)

Polymarket prices Cepeda at ~42%. EHIQ at 20% — 22pp fade, highest-confidence call in the Colombia field. Cepeda IS the locked Pacto Histórico nominee (won Oct 26 2025 consulta with 65% vs Carolina Corcho; Bolívar/Muhamad/Pizarro/Flórez all withdrew and endorsed; Petro publicly confirmed May 10 he personally recruited Cepeda). The 42% reflects PH base unity, but first-round 50% threshold + non-leftist majority in Colombia + runoff math against unified right work against him. TIQ corpus seed signal: Cepeda's "ganaré en primera vuelta" assertion is over-calibrated given polls show 37-40% with 50% threshold required — that gap becomes post-May 31 narrative weapon if he falls short. High INEVITABILITY at collective level (low personal hubris), TRIPLE_COALITION framing (protestors + indigenous/Afro + Petro beneficiaries), audience-calibrated posture (offensive in rallies, conciliatory in elite interviews). First-round leads in Colombian presidentials historically don't survive runoffs against consolidated opposition.