← All callsThe number above is the forecast (polls only)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
Thesis
Polymarket prices Cepeda at ~42%. EHIQ at 20% — 22pp below the market, highest-confidence call in the Colombia field. Cepeda IS the locked Pacto Histórico nominee (won Oct 26 2025 consulta with 65% vs Carolina Corcho; Bolívar/Muhamad/Pizarro/Flórez all withdrew and endorsed; Petro publicly confirmed May 10 he personally recruited Cepeda). The 42% reflects PH base unity, but first-round 50% threshold + non-leftist majority in Colombia + runoff math against unified right work against him. TIQ corpus seed signal: Cepeda's "ganaré en primera vuelta" assertion is over-calibrated given polls show 37-40% with 50% threshold required — that gap becomes post-May 31 narrative weapon if he falls short. High INEVITABILITY at collective level (low personal hubris), TRIPLE_COALITION framing, audience-calibrated posture (offensive in rallies, conciliatory in elite interviews). First-round leads in Colombian presidentials historically don't survive runoffs against consolidated opposition.
Resolution
Runoff resolved (2026-06-24): Cepeda conceded at 9:25 a.m. and Pacto Histórico withdrew its reclamaciones. Final escrutinio 99.99%: Espriella 49.66% / Cepeda 48.70%, margin ~250,830 votes (~0.96pp). "Will Cepeda win the presidency" resolves NO — Cepeda lost. EHIQ priced him below the market at 20% on 2026-05-10 (vs Polymarket 42%, the highest-confidence call in the Colombia field) — correct direction, real-time (isBacktest:false). First-round leads in Colombian presidentials don't survive runoffs against consolidated opposition, as called.
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026
Get an alert the moment this call resolves.
Each published EHIQ call carries a resolution date; when it resolves, the verdict is posted here. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.