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ElectionResolvedHit★ featured
Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
20%
(17-24%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
Thesis
Polymarket prices Cepeda at ~42%. EHIQ at 20% — 22pp fade, highest-confidence call in the Colombia field. Cepeda IS the locked Pacto Histórico nominee (won Oct 26 2025 consulta with 65% vs Carolina Corcho; Bolívar/Muhamad/Pizarro/Flórez all withdrew and endorsed; Petro publicly confirmed May 10 he personally recruited Cepeda). The 42% reflects PH base unity, but first-round 50% threshold + non-leftist majority in Colombia + runoff math against unified right work against him. TIQ corpus seed signal: Cepeda's "ganaré en primera vuelta" assertion is over-calibrated given polls show 37-40% with 50% threshold required — that gap becomes post-May 31 narrative weapon if he falls short. High INEVITABILITY at collective level (low personal hubris), TRIPLE_COALITION framing (protestors + indigenous/Afro + Petro beneficiaries), audience-calibrated posture (offensive in rallies, conciliatory in elite interviews). First-round leads in Colombian presidentials historically don't survive runoffs against consolidated opposition.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 24, 2026
Runoff resolved (2026-06-24): Cepeda conceded at 9:25 a.m. and Pacto Histórico withdrew its reclamaciones. Final escrutinio 99.99%: Espriella 49.66% / Cepeda 48.70%, margin ~250,830 votes (~0.96pp). "Will Cepeda win the presidency" resolves NO — Cepeda lost. EHIQ faded him at 20% on 2026-05-10 (vs Polymarket 42%, the highest-confidence call in the Colombia field) — correct directional fade, real-time (isBacktest:false). First-round leads in Colombian presidentials don't survive runoffs against consolidated opposition, as called.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026
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