Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned

Thesis

1. 1.Conservative majority has been narrowing Humphrey's for years: Seila Law (2020) distinguished it; Collins v Yellen (2021) narrowed further. Direct overturn is the next logical step.
2. 2.Per-justice read from opinion record: Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh all read as settled-direction. The four hard-conservative votes are essentially locked.
3. 3.Barrett's prior opinions and questioning suggest she's wrestling. May concur on narrower grounds, preserving as-applied doctrine for multi-member commissions, but joining strike-down on majority.
4. 4.Roberts is the swing on scope. He prefers narrow incremental rulings. The question isn't whether he joins, it's whether he writes the opinion narrowly enough to preserve some Humphrey's residue.
5. 5.Isgur framework: 6-3 strike-down with Roberts joining is the most likely outcome, not a broader 5-4 + concurrence split. The doctrine has been dying for 6 years; June 2026 is the funeral.