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v18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)

Will BTC spot price on 2026-06-10 (21 days forward) close at or above the 2026-05-20 close?

EHIQ

62%

(55-68%)

Market

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Edge

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Thesis

The EHIQ v18 gate moved to risk-ON today, 2026-05-20, with a model score of 0.619 — above the 0.5 ON threshold, into the B→C interpolation region of the EMJX Gen2.1 v1.3 allocation matrix. The v18 model is trained on a forward-21-day binary BTC return target; a score of 0.619 indicates the model assigns ~62% probability that BTC closes at or above today's spot 21 days forward. Live allocation accordingly: 41% BTC + 21% ETH + ~6% convertibles + ~17% hedge pool + ~4% cash + put coverage. This entry tracks the LIVE MODEL OUTPUT, posted on the day of the shift; resolution by BTC spot close on 2026-06-10 vs 2026-05-20 close. NO historical performance claim is attached — historical CAGR/alpha figures from prior backtests remain under separate data-provenance reconciliation and are not externally cited.

1.v18 gate model output: 0.619 (above 0.5 ON threshold).
2.Allocation in B→C interpolation region per EMJX Gen2.1 v1.3 spec.
3.Resolution: BTC spot close on 2026-06-10 (21 days forward) vs 2026-05-20 close.
4.Model methodology: 12-feature v18, 8 windows, 21-day rolling vote — currently the live B8 gate per Adam Neufeld.
5.Tracked-as-output: we post the model's probability and grade the binary outcome in 21 days.
6.Discipline lock: historical performance figures (retired +34.77%, +80.3%, +33.8% lineage) NOT cited; today's entry is forward-looking signal only.
7.DAILY UPDATE 2026-05-22: v18 score compressed from 0.619 (May 20 open) to 0.524 — a -9.5pp drift toward the 0.5 gate-off threshold over 2 days. Gate still ON but cushion narrow. Allocation drift: BTC 41% → 38.6% (-2.4pp), ETH 21% → 20.2% (-0.8pp), HEDGE_POOL ~17% → 21.0% (+4pp), CASH ~4% → 4.8%. Hedge sleeve grew most (+4pp) = incremental risk-off within still-risk-on regime, consistent with B→C interpolation. ETH/BTC RSI 26.87 = "ETH Underperforming" tier (extremely oversold; below the 30 traditional band).
8.DAILY UPDATE 2026-05-22 PERFORMANCE (EMJX vs BTC, per Adam Neufeld performance report 2026-05-22): 7d EMJX -2.3% / BTC -2.7% → alpha +0.4pp (defense regime; book beating BTC in a BTC drawdown, hedge sleeve carrying). 7d equal-weighted peer alpha +2.0pp (beat 3 of 4 comps — IBIT / ETHA / BMNR / MSTR). 30d alpha -6.9pp vs BTC. Inception (100d) alpha -12.9pp vs BTC. Upside capture vs BTC: 8% / Downside capture vs BTC: 4% — book is structurally hedged, captures small fraction of BTC moves either direction. The 7d positive alpha is a defensive-regime win (BTC down, EMJX down less), NOT an offensive-regime win (BTC up, EMJX up more). Both numbers cited per discipline lock.

Opened

May 20, 2026

Expected resolution

June 10, 2026