MacroResolvedHit

Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 2026

Does the Bank of Canada hold the target overnight rate at 2.25% at its 2026-09-02 fixed announcement date?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

95%

(88-98%)

Market

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Edge

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Thesis

Seventh consecutive hold is the overwhelming consensus (Reuters 35/35; CORRA OIS ~95-99%) and the data support it both ways the Bank would want: CPI ticked UP to 3.0% (July, gasoline/Hormuz), so no cover for a cut; Q2 GDP ~3.4% annualized and unemployment 6.4% falling, so no urgency either. The residual 5% is the HIKE tail (Macklem: will not let higher oil prices become persistent inflation), not a cut. Registered 90 minutes before the statement as the first signed brick of the CB-meeting venue prior.

1.Reuters 35/35 hold; OIS 95-99% hold, ~1-5% hike, cut unpriced
2.CPI 3.0% Jul (up from 2.8%) kills the cut case
3.residual risk is the HIKE tail, not a cut

Resolution

Outcome

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Resolved

September 2, 2026

BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a 7th consecutive decision, 2026-09-02 09:45 ET statement. Consensus read (Reuters 35/35, OIS 95-99%) confirmed.

Opened

September 2, 2026

Expected resolution

September 2, 2026

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