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ElectionResolved★ featured
Matt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place
Will Matt Mahan finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
7%
(5-10%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: reframed from "win the election" to primary first-place finish. SEM v1.2 ensemble 8.88% (race_id ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary; specificity 1.22/1k, n=21, −1.12pp TIQ adjustment, reliability 1.0). EHIQ 7% reflects 50% damping from prior 5% baseline: 5 + 0.5*(8.88-5) ≈ 6.9%. Klein/Terner program-data substance (92% retention, $6,500/person housing intervention) + CNN "You're lying to people" Hilton gas-claim correction preserved as analytical input. Executive-experience candidate frame intact at first-place layer.
- 1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 5% → 7% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. SEM v1.2 ensemble (ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary): SEM 10.00%, ensemble 8.88% (TIQ adjustment −1.12pp; specificity Mahan 1.22/1k, n=21, reliability 1.0). Conservative 50% damping from prior: 5 + 0.5 × (8.88 − 5) ≈ 7%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL — low-specificity TIQ flag not load-bearing per discipline.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 28, 2026
CA SoS returns, June 2 2026.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026