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ElectionActive★ featured
Matt Mahan win (CA Governor 2026)
Will Matt Mahan win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
EHIQ
5%
(3-8%)
Edge
+3.8pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 5% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 2%.
Market has since moved down to 1% · -1.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 9 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Mahan at 2.2% (Vol $19.8M). EHIQ at 5% — +2.8pp sleeper-promoted call. CNN debate showed highest numerical density on stage from Mahan ('You're lying to people' on Hilton's gas claim with specific numbers). Mahan's 'private prisons / ICE detention centers' attack on Steyer landed but is single-source — verify before external publish. Mayor of San Jose pedigree + debate performance exceed his 2.2% Polymarket pricing, but ceiling constrained by Becerra/Steyer/Porter ahead of him in name recognition. EHIQ +2.8pp call reflects 'better than market thinks but not a frontrunner.'
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026