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ElectionResolved
LA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the June 2 2026 LA mayoral primary (first-round winner)?
EHIQ
20%
(17-23%)
Edge
+2.0pp
within noise
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 20% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 18%.
Market still at 18% · 0.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 13 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: reframed from "win the office" to first-round / primary first-place finish. Prior 21.5% reflected runoff-slot math; reframed as direct first-round prob. SEM v1.2 ensemble 19.01% (race_id la-mayor-2026-firstround; specificity 11.87/1k, n=31 — strongest sample in race, +1.45pp TIQ adjustment with reliability 1.0). EHIQ 20% lands tight to SEM ensemble and slightly above market 18%. Original "Pratt slightly underpriced as celebrity-novelty" thesis directionally preserved.
- 1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 21.5% → 20% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. Polymarket sub-market structure consistent with first-round-winner semantics. SEM v1.2 ensemble (la-mayor-2026-firstround): SEM 17.56%, ensemble 19.01% (TIQ adjustment +1.45pp; specificity 11.87/1k, n=31, reliability 1.0). Note: this candidate triggered a TIQ_FLIPPED_SIGN flag in the ensemble (ensemble crosses above market while SEM was below) — Phase C FAIL means this is a research observation, NOT a validated signal flip. Conservative 50% damping from prior: 21.5 + 0.5 × (19.01 − 21.5) ≈ 20.3%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) — TIQ research-internal only.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 28, 2026
NBC/ABC7 live results; Pratt→3rd post-count.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026