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ElectionActive
LA mayoral — Spencer Pratt to win
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 LA mayoral election?
EHIQ
22%
(20-23%)
Edge
-4.0pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 22% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 18%.
Market has since moved up to 26% · +7.5pp toward EHIQ view
EHIQ vs market over time · 11 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Pratt is slightly underpriced. Markets discount him as celebrity-novelty rather than pricing his runoff-slot probability cleanly. Strong make-runoff bet. Weak win-the-office bet. Held conviction across every debate topic May 6 — most stable speaker on the stage.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 4, 2026