Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)

Polymarket prices Valencia at ~20%. EHIQ at 10% — 10pp below the market. Valencia won March 8 Centro Democrático primary (beat Vicky Dávila who exited to journalism); credible Senator + Uribe ally, but Centro Democrático brand has weakened post-Uribe-era and party polling declining for several cycles. Lacks executive-resume the presidential lane requires. Espriella eats much of her right-wing base via Costeño populist appeal. Her TIQ register lacks the inevitability stack of a 20% candidate — measured establishment-conservative posture, no charismatic break-out. 20% Polymarket pricing reads as Centro Democrático nostalgia rather than Valencia-specific calibration.