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Trump v X — birthright citizenship EO struck down

Will the Supreme Court strike down Trump Executive Order 14160 (ending birthright citizenship)?

EHIQ
78%
(72-85%)
Market
Edge

Thesis

EO 14160 attempts to deny birthright citizenship to children of unauthorized immigrants and certain temporary visa holders by executive order. The 14th Amendment text ("All persons born or naturalized in the United States . are citizens") is plain. United States v Wong Kim Ark (1898) is 128-year-old controlling precedent. Even the conservative majority will be reluctant to read "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" as narrowly as the EO requires. Lower courts unanimously enjoined. Argued April 1 2026 with hostile questioning from Roberts and Kavanaugh. Government loses with 7-2 or 8-1 likely.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
June 30, 2026