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ElectionResolvedHit
Pezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
12%
Edge
-23.7pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
Opened June 1, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
Thesis
Pezeshkian was elected in mid-2024 and is still in early stages of his presidency with no credible removal mechanism in play. Iranian political removals require Supreme Leader intervention or extraordinary circumstances, neither of which appear imminent. The current market price of 35.7% appears significantly overpriced relative to the base rate of mid-term presidential removal in Iran and the absence of any concrete removal signals. The low Stage 2 score of 20/100 corroborates a low probability assessment.
- 1.Pezeshkian took office in July 2024 and has no strong immediate removal signals
- 2.Iranian presidential removals mid-term are historically rare without major political crisis
- 3.Supreme Leader Khamenei has not signaled displeasure that would trigger removal
- 4.30-day window is very short for a political ouster to materialize
- 5.Stage 2 score of 20/100 indicates weak trajectory signal for removal
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
July 23, 2026
Pezeshkian remained President of Iran through June 30 2026; the May 31 resignation-letter report was denied, never accepted, and contradicted by continuous public duties (MoU signing Jun 17-18, Pakistan state visit Jun 23). Polymarket market 1138908 resolved NO (closed 2026-07-01 08:47 UTC). EHIQ 12% vs market 35.7% at open -- the fade was right. Resolved late (23 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.
Opened
June 1, 2026
Expected resolution
June 30, 2026