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ElectionActive
Pezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
EHIQ
12%
Edge
-23.7pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 12% on June 1, 2026 when Polymarket was at 36%.
Market still at 36% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
Pezeshkian was elected in mid-2024 and is still in early stages of his presidency with no credible removal mechanism in play. Iranian political removals require Supreme Leader intervention or extraordinary circumstances, neither of which appear imminent. The current market price of 35.7% appears significantly overpriced relative to the base rate of mid-term presidential removal in Iran and the absence of any concrete removal signals. The low Stage 2 score of 20/100 corroborates a low probability assessment.
- 1.Pezeshkian took office in July 2024 and has no strong immediate removal signals
- 2.Iranian presidential removals mid-term are historically rare without major political crisis
- 3.Supreme Leader Khamenei has not signaled displeasure that would trigger removal
- 4.30-day window is very short for a political ouster to materialize
- 5.Stage 2 score of 20/100 indicates weak trajectory signal for removal
Opened
June 1, 2026
Expected resolution
June 30, 2026