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ElectionActive
Any candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil 2026 presidential election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
4%
Polymarket
7%
Edge
-2.9pp
within noise
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 4% on September 12, 2026 when Polymarket was at 6%.
Market has since moved up to 7% · +0.5pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 8 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Machine proposal, blind to the market: 2/9 outright R1 wins since 1989 (both FHC mid-90s); no leader polling ≤43% of total votes at ~3 weeks has ever closed to >50% of valid votes (2002 Lula ~46% valid failed; 2022 Lula ~48% failed). Fragmented 5-6 candidate field with Cury surging as spoiler; leader at 36-43% total ≈ 40-46% valid in every current poll.
Opened
September 12, 2026
Expected resolution
October 4, 2026
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