ElectionResolvedHIT

Any candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil 2026 presidential election?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ graded opening

Polymarket

gap vs market

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The number above is the forecast (polls only)

Language: no read

The call vs the market, dated

Graded opening 4% (Sep 12). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 6%.

Market has since moved down to 6% · -0.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 24 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market: 2/9 outright R1 wins since 1989 (both FHC mid-90s); no leader polling ≤43% of total votes at ~3 weeks has ever closed to >50% of valid votes (2002 Lula ~46% valid failed; 2022 Lula ~48% failed). Fragmented 5-6 candidate field with Cury surging as spoiler; leader at 36-43% total ≈ 40-46% valid in every current poll.

Resolution

Outcome

Resolved

October 5, 2026

RESOLVED NO (hit) — TSE 2026-10-04: no candidate reached 50% of valid votes; runoff 2026-10-25 (Flávio ~47.6% / Lula ~44.5%, ~95%+ counted). The R1-outright call at 0.04 was made blind 2026-09-12 (reference class 2/9 outright R1 wins since 1989; zero conversions from ≤43% at 3 weeks out). Mechanism played out exactly: fragmented 12-candidate field, leader ~3pp short of 50% of valid votes. Falsifier (Lula ≥48% total + blank/null ≥8%, or Cury <3% with migration) never fired — Cury landed ~3%. Verdict entered per Eric 2026-10-04.

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

October 4, 2026

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