Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)

Polymarket prices Espriella at ~40% ($28M volume). EHIQ at 28% — 12pp fade. Election May 31 2026 (round 1) — 21 days. TIQ corpus seed surfaced critical candidate-set corrections: Vicky Dávila OUT (lost Centro Democrático primary March 8); Fico Gutiérrez NOT running; Rodolfo Hernández deceased; Claudia López WON March 8 centrist Consulta de las Soluciones (new centrist lane). Original 22% fade was calibrated against April peak data and was too aggressive; refined to 28% reflects (1) right-wing field largely consolidated (Dávila/Fico off the board), (2) Espriella's Costeño populist register has held momentum, (3) but 50% first-round threshold + López centrist emergence + Cepeda PH lock all cap his ceiling. Spanish-original pattern extraction recommended for his "mano de hierro" / militarized-authority stack — Costeño register loses rhetorical performance in translation.