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ElectionResolved★ featured
Xavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-place
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?
EHIQ
52%
(47-57%)
Edge
+3.0pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 52% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 49%.
Market has since moved down to 49% · -0.2pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: this market resolves on CA jungle-primary first-place finish (Polymarket sub-market probs sum to ~1 across the 5-candidate field — Becerra 0.49 + Steyer 0.335 + Hilton 0.097 + Porter 0.014 + Mahan 0.022 — which is first-place semantics, not the 0.5 D-vs-R split a general-only market would produce). Reframed from prior "win the election" reading. SEM v1.2 ensemble 60.84% (race_id ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary; specificity 20.41/1k, n=7, +1.63pp TIQ adjustment with reliability 0.6). EHIQ 52% reflects 50% damping from prior 44% baseline: 44 + 0.5*(60.84-44) ≈ 52.4%. Prior TIQ-failure thesis (Klein/Terner specificity deflection + CNN single-payer dodge + Villaraigosa migrant-children fact-check + Sacramento corruption victim-register) preserved as analytical caveat — but Phase C FAIL means those reads are research-internal, not load-bearing.
- 1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 44% → 52% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. Polymarket sub-market structure (Becerra 0.49 + Steyer 0.335 + Hilton 0.097 + Porter 0.014 + Mahan 0.022 ≈ 0.95) is consistent with primary-first-place semantics, not general/runoff (which would split ~0.5 D-vs-R). Reframed to match. SEM v1.2 ensemble (ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary): SEM 59.21%, ensemble 60.84% (TIQ adjustment +1.63pp; specificity Becerra 20.41/1k, n=7, reliability 0.6). Conservative 50% damping from prior: 44 + 0.5 × (60.84 − 44) ≈ 52%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) — TIQ research-internal only. Prior TIQ-failure thesis (Klein/Terner + CNN + Villaraigosa fact-check + Sacramento corruption) preserved as analytical caveat but not load-bearing.
Resolution
Outcome
YES
Resolved
June 28, 2026
CA Secretary of State official returns, June 2 2026 primary.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026