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Tom Steyer win (CA Governor 2026)

Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

EHIQ

30%

(25-35%)

Polymarket

32%

live market →

Edge

-1.6pp

within noise

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 30% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 33%.

Market has since moved down to 32% · -1.8pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 9 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Polymarket prices Steyer at 33.5% (Vol $19.8M). EHIQ at 30% — 3.5pp fade. CNN debate refined the Klein-interview Steyer read modestly downward. Money-with-message work since 2020 is real (split roll + water's edge tax loopholes named in Klein interview), but the broader Dem field's combined attack on his billionaire register is durable. Establishment + Hispanic coalition consolidation around Becerra still constrains Steyer's ceiling. Sleeper risk: Mahan's 'private prisons / ICE detention centers' attack on Steyer landed in debate (single-source — verify before external publish).

Opened

May 10, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026