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ElectionResolved★ featured
Tom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?
EHIQ
35%
(30-40%)
Edge
+1.5pp
within noise
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 35% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 34%.
Market still at 34% · 0.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: reframed from "win the election" to primary first-place finish. SEM v1.2 ensemble 39.42% (race_id ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary; specificity 0.0/1k flag, n=12, −1.37pp TIQ adjustment with reliability 1.0 — sem_divergence_flag=true). EHIQ 35% reflects 50% damping from prior 30% baseline: 30 + 0.5*(39.42-30) ≈ 34.7%. Klein/Terner specificity floor (split-roll + water's-edge loopholes, $15-20B/yr revenue) + 2020 presidential money-without-message pattern preserved as analytical input; preserved skepticism on the $132M self-funding edge given the Becerra establishment-Hispanic coalition still leads in the underlying Emerson poll.
- 1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 30% → 35% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. Polymarket sub-market structure consistent with primary-first-place semantics. SEM v1.2 ensemble (ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary): SEM 40.79%, ensemble 39.42% (TIQ adjustment −1.37pp; specificity Steyer 0.0/1k, n=12, reliability 1.0; sem_divergence_flag=true because Polymarket first-place market Steyer 25% < SEM 40.79%). Conservative 50% damping from prior: 30 + 0.5 × (39.42 − 30) ≈ 35%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL — TIQ specificity flag (0.0/1k) not load-bearing per discipline.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 28, 2026
CA SoS returns, June 2 2026.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026