SPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry

Stamped on IPO day with SPCX indicated ~$200 pre-open (gray markets $180-208, ~$2.3-2.6T implied). S-1 read: three businesses in one ticker — Starlink compounder (63% segment EBITDA margins, ARPU declining $99->$66), launch utility (+8% YoY), AI venture bet ($3.2B revenue vs ~$1B/month burn). Existing-business value supports roughly $700B-$1T (~$55-75/share); the balance of the price is the AI option plus believer premium, with founder comp structured on market-cap tranches to $7.5T. Against the call: ~4.2% float, ~$6B forced index buying within 15 days of S&P fast-track inclusion, 20-30% retail allocation. For the call: two quarterly loss prints (~$1.9B/qtr operating) land before expiry, classic pre-unlock front-running, and Bloomberg cohort data (median large tech IPO trough = 20% below OFFER price within year one; 4 in 10 down 30%+). A sub-$135 print from a ~$200 open requires roughly a one-third drawdown inside six months — real but not the base case. EHIQ 40%. Disclosure: SRXH holds a pre-IPO investment in SPCX, and EMJ Capital holds SRXH shares purchased in the open market — an indirect long SPCX interest. This stamp runs against that interest.