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Mullin v Al Otro Lado — government wins on asylum metering
Will the Supreme Court rule for the government in Mullin v Al Otro Lado on asylum-seeker turnback authority?
EHIQ
65%
(60-72%)
Market
—
Edge
—
—
Thesis
Conservative majority has consistently sided with executive immigration authority (Trump v Hawaii 2018, DHS v Thuraissigiam 2020, Biden v Texas 2022). Question: must asylum seekers presenting at border be inspected and entered into asylum process, or can CBP turn them back? Government argues 8 USC 1158 and Article II discretion permit metering/turnback. Roberts/Alito/Thomas/Gorsuch reliable on executive immigration deference; Kavanaugh/Barrett likely to join. Plaintiffs' best shot is Kavanaugh writing narrow opinion with procedural protections.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
June 30, 2026