ElectionResolvedMiss

Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary?

premise verified 0h ago

EHIQ

42%

Polymarket

65%

Edge

-23.0pp

EHIQ below market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 42% on July 18, 2026 when Polymarket was at 65%.

Market still at 65% · 0.0pp from open

Thesis

EHIQ reads El-Sayed a modest underdog (~42%), not the market's ~65% favorite. The freshest poll has him down 7, he faces the same Black-voter wall that sank him in 2018 (down 67-21 in Detroit), and a roughly 12-to-1 outside-spending wave is landing for Haley Stevens in the closing weeks. The market looks anchored to a stale post-dropout high. The edge is to fade El-Sayed.

Resolution

Outcome

YES

Resolved

August 13, 2026

El-Sayed WON the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary on 2026-08-04, 48.5% to Haley Stevens' 47.5%, a 1-point margin. Outcome is YES. EHIQ had 42%, below even, so this is a MISS. NOTE FOR THE RECORD: the market had 65% and was right, so this is a call where the market beat EHIQ on a priced question.

Opened

July 18, 2026

Expected resolution

August 4, 2026