Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

Polymarket prices Chong at 92.5% near-lock ($36M volume — deep market, real consensus). EHIQ at 85% — 7.5pp modest fade. Korea Times May 10 headline "Landslide outlook fades for DPK as races in PPP base tighten" confirms first directional tightening signal. Three factors justify modest fade: (1) Oh Se-hoon is a 4-time Seoul mayor (2006, 2010, 2021 by-election, 2022 regular) — personal-brand incumbency stack stronger than almost any other Korean conservative right now. (2) Seoul is structurally more conservative than national average; DPK national wave doesn't transfer 1:1 to Seoul local. (3) Korean turnout dynamics favor older conservative voters; "shy conservative" effects have surfaced in past Seoul polls. Chong's "surpassing Tokyo/Shanghai/Singapore" + "G2 on par with NYC" framing reads as over-reach inconsistent with a 92.5%-lock candidate. Oh's tonal pivot from April national-existential register to May operational-technocratic (7-line subway pledge, 20T won) suggests defensive posture but unable to escape national headwind. Caveat: TIQ corpus seed only; no Korean-language pattern-extraction layer yet — qualitative read.