Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayor 2026)

Polymarket prices Chong at 92.5% (Vol $36M, deep consensus). EHIQ at 85% — 7.5pp fade. The 92.5% lock is mostly genuine (deep market, post-2025 Lee Jae-myung honeymoon + PPP disarray after Yoon-era martial-law fallout, <4 weeks to election limits reversal window). But three factors justify modest fade: (1) Oh Se-hoon is a 4-time Seoul mayor — strongest personal-brand-incumbency stack among Korean conservatives. (2) Seoul is structurally more conservative than national average; DPK national wave doesn't transfer 1:1. (3) Korean polls historically show 5-10pt late-cycle compression with 'shy conservative' effect; 92.5% implies a 20+ point poll lead that may not hold. Caveat: structural-priors call, no Korean TIQ corpus, lower confidence than TIQ-validated calls.