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FDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)

Will the FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) vote UNfavorably (majority against clinical benefit) on RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab for advanced melanoma? (~July 28 2026)

premise not yet verified
EHIQ
70%
Market
Edge

Thesis

EHIQ's AdCom model reads REPL as reject-leaning (~70%). The pivotal IGNYTE trial is single-arm with a surrogate ORR primary in a heterogeneous population and unresolved contribution-of-components (RP1 vs nivolumab), the exact deficiencies the FDA named in its July 2025 Complete Response Letter, with no new controlled data added. Panels punish single-arm, surrogate-endpoint packages. Dated before the FDA briefing documents post.
Opened
July 18, 2026
Expected resolution
July 28, 2026