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Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports
Will the Supreme Court uphold state laws barring transgender girls from female school sports (Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J.)?
EHIQ
82%
(72-90%)
Edge
+10.0pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 82% on June 27, 2026 when Polymarket was at 72%.
Market still at 72% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
We sit above the market's 72%. At argument the bans appeared poised to be upheld, and the doctrinal groundwork — the Court deferring to state authority over gender-transition policy for minors in its recent terms — is largely in place. Two companion cases (Idaho and West Virginia) argued together point to a single consolidated holding. The market's 72% reads like residual hedging on a fractured or narrow opinion; we think the directional outcome — bans upheld — is firmer than that.
- 1.Argument coverage had the bans 'poised' to be upheld; two companion cases (Idaho, West Virginia) argued together suggest a consolidated holding.
- 2.The doctrinal path was largely laid by the Court's recent deference to state authority over gender-transition policy for minors.
- 3.The market's 72% reads as hedging on a narrow or fractured opinion; we think the directional result is firmer.
- 4.Risk: a splintered opinion that resolves on narrow Title IX grounds without a clean equal-protection holding.
Resolution
Outcome
Upheld 6-3 (Little v. Hecox / WV v. B.P.J.); bans stand
Resolved
June 30, 2026
Graded vs actual ruling (FACT_CHECKER, primary-source).
Opened
June 27, 2026
Expected resolution
July 1, 2026