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ElectionResolved
BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 BC Conservative Party leadership?
EHIQ
80%
(68-88%)
Edge
-1.0pp
within noise
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 80% on May 28, 2026 when Polymarket was at 81%.
Market still at 81% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
CONSENSUS-CONFIRMING (not a fade). Our language-based read puts Caroline Elliott clearly at the top of the five-way field — which agrees with the market (Polymarket ~81%). We are logging this as a calibration / track-record call, not an edge call: there is no daylight between us and the market here, and we are saying so plainly. We deliberately hold a hair below the market (80% vs 81%, with a wider band) because of an honest limitation: this is a ranked-ballot contest and our signal measures first-choice momentum only — second- and third-choice transfer behavior is unmeasured, and the candidate corpus is thin. One internal divergence worth noting: our read has Iain Black second on momentum, whereas the market has Kerry-Lynne Findlay second and Black far back — a minor sub-signal, not the headline. Blind call logged before voting closed (May 29); resolves on the May 30 count reveal.
- 1.Our language read puts Elliott clearly first in the five-way field — agrees with the market (Polymarket ~81%).
- 2.Logged as a calibration / track-record call, not an edge call: no daylight vs the market, and we say so.
- 3.We hold a hair below market (80% vs 81%) on purpose — ranked-ballot transfers are unmeasured by a first-choice signal, and the corpus is thin, so we widen the band.
- 4.Minor internal divergence: our read has Black second on momentum vs the market's Findlay-second — a sub-signal, not the headline.
- 5.Blind call logged before voting closed (May 29). Resolves on the May 30 count reveal.
Resolution
Outcome
—
Resolved
May 31, 2026
Opened
May 28, 2026
Expected resolution
May 30, 2026