EarningsResolvedCalibration

DAVE Q1 FY26 — direction right, magnitude calibration

Will DAVE Q1 FY26 deliver record credit + record buyback (predicted)?

EHIQ

75%

Market

—

Edge

—

Upstream of markets

Validation milestone

DAVE Q1 FY26 print on May 5, 2026 (1 day after EHIQ posted)

All 8 directional markers confirmed; revenue magnitude 5-10% high. Calibration learning, not a miss.

Thesis

Pre-print thesis called all directional markers correctly: 28-DPD record, $300M new buyback, raised FY26 guide, CashAI v5.5 structural credit improvement. Direction was 8/8 right. Magnitude on revenue was 5-10% too aggressive — EHIQ modeled $165-180M, actual $158.4M. Calibration lesson: apply sandbagging haircut + alt-data 0.7-0.8x conversion factor.

Resolution

Outcome

PARTIAL

Resolved

May 5, 2026

Direction 8/8 right. Magnitude 5-10% too aggressive on revenue. Calibration: apply sandbagging haircut + 0.7-0.8x conversion factor on alt-data going forward.

Opened

May 4, 2026