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OpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 2026
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 by September 15, 2026?
premise not yet verified
The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 50% (Sep 2). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 47%.
Thesis
OpenAI's major-version gaps have run 12 to 15 months (GPT-4 March 2023, GPT-4o May 2024, GPT-5 August 2025); September 2026 sits 13 months after GPT-5, inside the cadence. DRIFT DISCLOSED: drafted against a 0.33 venue price on 9/1; the venue moved to 0.465 by registration, toward this number. Registered as the 45-day anchor for the 2026-09-06 Sharp send; the fast grade is its function. CORRECTION 2026-09-07: the two venue prices cited above (0.33 on 9/1, 0.465 at registration) CANNOT BE SUBSTANTIATED. The declared Polymarket slug returns zero results from the gamma API, last_market_success_at was NULL, and market_consecutive_failures was 2 with error kind not_found. No price on this call was ever fetched from a venue by the system. Whoever observed those numbers on 9/1 was reading something that was never recorded, and the source is unknown. The drift disclosure was made in good faith and is left standing above; this note records that its underlying prices have no provenance. The call was reclassified to no_market on 2026-09-06 and grades on the absolute track against the outcome.
- 1.major-version cadence 12-15 months
- 2.13 months post-GPT-5
- 3.venue drifted 0.33 -> 0.465 toward EHIQ before open
Resolution
Resolved
September 19, 2026
Criterion re-stamped 2026-09-06, 9 days before resolution and before the outcome is known. The 2026-09-02 criterion graded on Polymarket settlement; that market does not exist. Graded on the absolute track against the outcome. Probability, direction and date unchanged.
[2026-10-16 eric-stamp KN] Labelled no-direction: EHIQ's graded at-open probability was exactly 0.50, which has no direction, so this call is neither a hit nor a miss. The stored hit column, actual_outcome and every probability are unchanged; ties stay in the hit-rate denominator (SCORING_POLICY §5).
Expected resolution
September 16, 2026
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