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BTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026

Will BTC close below $50,000 (USD) on at least one calendar day between Jun 6 2026 and Dec 31 2026?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

50%

(40-60%)

Market

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Edge

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Thesis

Extension of the May 26 v18 MIXED->STRESS print. BTC has dropped from $77K (May 26 call moment) to ~$60K (Jun 6) — 21% in 10 trading days. v18 STRESS regime persistence + macro-rates pressure + private-credit contagion compounding gives BTC a ~50% chance to test below $50K on at least one day in the back half of 2026.

Opened

June 7, 2026

Expected resolution

December 31, 2026

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