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GA Senate — Ossoff retention

Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?

EHIQ

62%

(58-68%)

Polymarket

—

Edge

+16.5pp

EHIQ above market

EHIQ vs market over time · 9 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Ossoff won 2021 runoff by 1.2%. Emerson Feb-Mar 2026 has Ossoff +5 vs Mike Collins (48-43). Ratings agencies have it TOSSUP. EHIQ at 62% LEAN_WIN_D, reflecting incumbent advantage + Stacey Abrams not running offsetting some D operational strength + R field uncertainty (Perdue/Kemp potential) + SEM v1.2 structural anchor 82.36%.

1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22: EHIQ 55% → 62% after SEM v1.2 build (`sem-1.2-2026-05-22`). SEM v1.2 ga-senate-general probability = 82.36% (v1.1 was 82.27%; +0.1pp — sub-rounding move; v1.2 mechanisms did not fire on this single-stage general race). Polymarket "Georgia Senate Election Winner" market shows Ossoff/Democrat ~85% (per SEM provenance). Apples-to-apples gap: SEM-EHIQ = +27.4pp (materially > 10pp threshold). TIQ specificity Ossoff 26.06 (MODERATE_CONVICTION per 2026-05-22 scoring) supportive of decisive incumbent register. Prior EHIQ rationale cited TIQ-research-internal "register stress on Ossoff (GA, 3.631)" — §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) prohibits leaning on that signal as method-validated. Material upward revision damped at 62% (vs SEM 82.36% and market 85%) to preserve some analyst caution on R-field uncertainty; range widened to 58-68% to acknowledge the residual SEM-EHIQ gap.

Opened

April 19, 2026

Expected resolution

November 4, 2026