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Drake top Spotify artist 2026
Will Drake be the top artist on Spotify in 2026?
EHIQ
20%
(17-23%)
Edge
+18.0pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 20% on May 9, 2026 when Kalshi was at 29%.
Market has since moved down to 2% · -27.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 2 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
REVISED MAY 9: EHIQ 38% → 20% after Kalshi 33%→2% move. We underweighted Bad Bunny's structural H1 2026 Latin streaming dominance. What we kept: Iceman (May 15 release + post-release tour) is still pre-release — that is the entire remaining bull case and the asymmetric upside Kalshi 2% doesn't credit. Kalshi pricing Iceman as already failed pre-release is too aggressive when the catalyst hasn't fired. Drake catalog dominance through H2 is the secondary thesis. Next calibration review post-May 15 release once first-week + week-1 streaming data is in.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
December 31, 2026