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US House control 2026
Will Democrats win the US House in 2026?
EHIQ
65%
(60-70%)
Edge
-15.5pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 65% on April 19, 2026 when Polymarket was at 78%.
Market has since moved up to 81% · +3.0pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 11 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Dem House control at 77.5% / Rep at 21.5% (volume $5.7M). EHIQ at 65% — 12pp below market. The midterm-incumbent-loss dynamic favors Dems, and Republicans hold a thin majority, so the structural advantage is real. But 77.5% overstates the certainty: low single-digit-seat majorities are historically resilient when the in-party gerrymandering holds (post-2020 cycle redistricting helped both sides). EHIQ tightens to 65% reflecting executable risk on D candidate quality + R structural redistricting wins in TX/FL/NC.
Opened
April 19, 2026
Expected resolution
November 4, 2026