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Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nomination
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
EHIQ
16%
(10-22%)
Edge
-4.4pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 16% on June 30, 2026 when Polymarket was at 20%.
Market still at 20% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
TonalityIQ language analysis flagged Newsom as the weakest of the top-tier 2028 Democrats months before the markets moved. His Polymarket nomination odds have since fallen from a ~37% Nov-2025 peak (post-Prop 50) to ~20% (Kalshi ~23%), with the freed probability fragmenting across AOC/Ossoff/Harris/Shapiro rather than consolidating behind one rival. EHIQ stays below the market — a fading, no-coronation field. EHIQ 16% vs Polymarket 20.4%.
Opened
June 30, 2026
Expected resolution
August 31, 2028