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SpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO price

Will SPCX close BELOW its IPO price on the trading day of the 180-day lock-up expiration?

EHIQ

35%

(30-40%)

Market

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Edge

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Thesis

Lock-up expiry typically creates 5-10% downward pressure on close-day (Snap -9%, Coinbase ~-7%, Lyft -9%) but breaking BELOW IPO price 180 days out requires either a fundamentally disappointing 6-month run OR a structurally massive secondary supply hit. SPCX is structurally protected: Musk's Class B has Transfer-triggered auto-conversion to Class A (he is unlikely to convert and sell), 1.3B of his shares are performance-conditioned (vest only on milestones, not unlocked at 180d), Class C (10B authorized, non-voting) is reserved for future issuance not employee unlock. Real float released at 180d is smaller than typical IPO. Probability of close below IPO at 180d: 35% — below 50% to reflect structural lock-up protections, but above 25% because of the unprecedented $1.75T valuation's mean-reversion risk.

1.S-1 lock-up structure (line 12320-12362): 180 days standard, Goldman Sachs holds waiver consent. "Automatic releases from these restrictions on a portion of securities earlier than 180 days" — so partial release may happen before expiry, smoothing supply rather than concentrating it on day 180.
2.Musk's ~5.6B Class B shares structurally hard to sell: Transfer auto-converts to Class A (loses 10:1 voting power), 1.3B is performance-conditioned, Revocable Trust mechanics. Musk has effectively never sold SpaceX equity historically.
3.Real secondary supply at 180d = employee equity + early VC stakes (Founders Fund, Sequoia, Google) — likely 5-10% of float, not the 20-30% that creates Snap/Coinbase-style dumps.
4.Counter-risk: if SPCX runs significantly above IPO in first 6 months (50%+), institutional rebalancing + early-investor monetization at 180d could produce >10% drop, but unlikely to break BELOW IPO unless first 6 months were also disappointing.
5.Resolution discipline: uses closing price on the actual lock-up expiration trading day, not VWAP or intraday low.

Opened

May 20, 2026

Expected resolution

December 9, 2026