Resolving now
Every active call by resolution date, with fresh grades as they land. Each call was posted before its outcome and links its own dated page. This page refreshes every minute.
Graded in the last 14 days
- MISS
Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
catalyst · opened Aug 18, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
- MISS
Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?
catalyst · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
- HIT
Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
catalyst · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
- MISS
Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?
catalyst · opened Aug 22, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
- HIT
Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
catalyst · opened Aug 18, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
- MISS
PQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election
Election · opened Oct 2, 2026 · resolved Oct 6, 2026
- NO_OUTRIGHT_WINNER
Any candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round
Election · opened Sep 12, 2026 · resolved Oct 5, 2026
- VOID
v18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 2026
Macro · opened Jun 7, 2026 · resolved Oct 3, 2026
Active, nearest resolution first
- IMMINENT
CERO repays the consolidated note in full by the October 15 maturity
Corporate · resolves today · Oct 15, 2026
EHIQ 15% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
David Eby's NDP wins the most seats in the 2026 BC election
Election · resolves in 9 days · Oct 24, 2026
EHIQ 46% · polymarket 23% now
- ACTIVE
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (runoff 2026-10-25)
Election · resolves in 10 days · Oct 25, 2026
EHIQ 80% · polymarket 87% now
- ACTIVE
Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)
Election · resolves in 11 days · Oct 26, 2026
EHIQ 33% · polymarket 70% now
- ACTIVE
Brad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)
Election · resolves in 11 days · Oct 26, 2026
EHIQ 62% · polymarket 31% now
- ACTIVE
Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
sports · resolves in 16 days · Oct 31, 2026
EHIQ 45% · polymarket 61% now
- ACTIVE
Lamine Yamal wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
sports · resolves in 16 days · Oct 31, 2026
EHIQ 16% · polymarket 32% now
- ACTIVE
Bernie Sanders endorses James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2
Election · resolves in 18 days · Nov 2, 2026
EHIQ 22% · polymarket 21% now
- ACTIVE
Abdul El-Sayed (D) wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 61% · polymarket 71% now
- ACTIVE
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 45% · polymarket 28% now
- ACTIVE
Josh Turek (D) wins the 2026 Iowa Senate election
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 37% · polymarket 43% now
- ACTIVE
Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 68% · polymarket 37% now
- ACTIVE
Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 57% · polymarket 32% now
- ACTIVE
James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate election
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 56% · polymarket 65% now
- ACTIVE
Jon Husted (R) wins the 2026 Ohio Senate election
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 60% · polymarket 40% now
- ACTIVE
Democrats win the 2026 Iowa governor race
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 62% · polymarket 89% now
- ACTIVE
Republicans win the 2026 Georgia governor race
Election · resolves in 19 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 47% · polymarket 53% now
- ACTIVE
Mary Peltola defeats Dan Sullivan (Alaska Senate 2026)
Election · resolves in 20 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 67% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Graham's SC Senate seat stays Republican, decided in the Aug 11 GOP primary by Trump's endorsement
Election · resolves in 20 days · Nov 3, 2026
EHIQ 87% · polymarket 85% now
- ACTIVE
Dem House control 2026
Election · resolves in 20 days · Nov 4, 2026
EHIQ 92% · polymarket 91% now
- ACTIVE
GA Senate — Ossoff retention
Election · resolves in 20 days · Nov 4, 2026
EHIQ 62% · polymarket 96% now
- ACTIVE
ME Senate — Collins (R) retention
Election · resolves in 20 days · Nov 4, 2026
EHIQ 40% · polymarket 42% now
- ACTIVE
Delaware Life's affiliated line prints below $13.0B in the Q3 statement
Corporate · resolves in 32 days · Nov 16, 2026
EHIQ 45% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Clear Spring's affiliated line prints below $5.0B in the Q3 statement
Corporate · resolves in 32 days · Nov 16, 2026
EHIQ 30% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Delaware Life files Q3 with no further restatement of any prior period
Corporate · resolves in 32 days · Nov 16, 2026
EHIQ 70% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Opendoor Series K warrant early-expiration condition triggers before 2026-11-20 expiry
Corporate · resolves in 36 days · Nov 20, 2026
EHIQ 5% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
TWG Sports level 3 mark below 90 at Q3 2026
credit · resolves in 46 days · Nov 30, 2026
EHIQ 28% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Bad Bunny is the most-streamed global artist on Spotify for 2026
Corporate · resolves in 50 days · Dec 3, 2026
EHIQ 87% · polymarket 88% now
- ACTIVE
SpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO price
Corporate · resolves in 56 days · Dec 9, 2026
EHIQ 35% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
SPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry
markets · resolves in 56 days · Dec 9, 2026
EHIQ 40% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
SpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10pp
Corporate · resolves in 61 days · Dec 14, 2026
EHIQ 40% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PRAX relutrigine
biotech · resolves in 73 days · Dec 27, 2026
EHIQ 50% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
BTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026
Macro · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 50% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Drake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissal
Legal · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 75% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Walter's Chelsea minority stake sale is agreed or announced by Dec 31
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Warner/Bain announce the Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 65% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Khosla group closes the Seahawks purchase by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 90% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Live Nation DOJ consent judgment entered by Dec 31 2026
Legal · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
NBA awards the first NBA Europe franchises by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 65% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
An NFL team sells a minority stake at a $10B+ valuation by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 50% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
LIV Golf closes its BC Partners-led investment by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
NBA approves expansion to 32 teams by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · resolves in 77 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
No Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)
Macro · resolves in 78 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 40% · polymarket 95% now
- ACTIVE
Intellicheck (IDN) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
equity · resolves in 78 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 62% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Digimarc (DMRC) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
equity · resolves in 78 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 42% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Mitek (MITK) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
equity · resolves in 78 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 52% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Drake top Spotify artist 2026
Corporate · resolves in 78 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 20% · polymarket 3% now
- ACTIVE
GameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)
Corporate · resolves in 78 days · Dec 31, 2026
EHIQ 8% · polymarket 6% now
- ACTIVE
Drake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative units
Corporate · resolves in 213 days · May 15, 2027
EHIQ 60% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Dodgers control sale announced by 30 Jun 2027
sports-ownership · resolves in 258 days · Jun 30, 2027
EHIQ 18% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
AM Best downgrades the Group 1001 Life Annuity Group below A- by June 30 2027
Corporate · resolves in 258 days · Jun 30, 2027
EHIQ 30% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Drake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecast
Corporate · resolves in 401 days · Nov 20, 2027
EHIQ 62% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Microsoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027
corporate_strategy · resolves in 442 days · Dec 31, 2027
EHIQ 65% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Braze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027
equity · resolves in 442 days · Dec 31, 2027
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Five9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027
equity · resolves in 442 days · Dec 31, 2027
EHIQ 60% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Mark Walter still controls the Los Angeles Dodgers on Dec 31 2027
Corporate · resolves in 442 days · Dec 31, 2027
EHIQ 45% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Drake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027
Corporate · resolves in 443 days · Dec 31, 2027
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Apple outperforms the AI intelligence-layer basket (NVDA/MSFT/GOOGL/META) by Jan 2028
Corporate · resolves in 449 days · Jan 6, 2028
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
2028 D primary — Buttigieg outperforms Newsom
Election · resolves in 686 days · Aug 31, 2028
EHIQ 38% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)
Election · resolves in 686 days · Aug 31, 2028
EHIQ 35% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nomination
Election · resolves in 686 days · Aug 31, 2028
EHIQ 16% · polymarket 14% now
- ACTIVE
JD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favorite
Election · resolves in 687 days · Aug 31, 2028
EHIQ 32% · polymarket 49% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — JD Vance
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 16% · polymarket 22% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Gavin Newsom
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 15% · polymarket 9% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Marco Rubio
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 10% · polymarket 8% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Josh Shapiro
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 8% · polymarket 3% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency: Nikki Haley
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 7% · polymarket 0% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 6% · polymarket 3% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 5% · polymarket 13% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Jon Ossoff
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 4% · polymarket 10% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Tucker Carlson
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 2% · polymarket 2% now
- ACTIVE
2028 presidency — Kamala Harris
Election · resolves in 754 days · Nov 7, 2028
EHIQ 2% · polymarket 4% now
- ACTIVE
Compagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascade
Corporate · resolves in 809 days · Dec 31, 2028
EHIQ 55% · no market declared
- ACTIVE
Drake's next deal: services/distribution, not a major
Corporate · resolves in 810 days · Jan 1, 2029
EHIQ 85% · no market declared