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Republicans win the 2026 Georgia governor race
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
premise verified 5h ago
EHIQ
47%
Polymarket
0%
gap vs market
+46.9pp
EHIQ above market
The number above is the forecast (polls only)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 47% (Sep 12). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 42%.
Market has since moved down to 0% · -41.9pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 90 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Machine proposal, blind to the market, fact-checked before stamping (19 claims: 11 confirmed, 6 softened, 0 dropped): the 2018 open-seat comp (Kemp won +1.4 under a D+8.6 wave with Trump at ~41%) adjusted for a worse 2026 environment puts R near 0.43; +~6pp for the nominee draw — Rick Jackson, the self-funding healthcare billionaire who beat Trump's AND Kemp's candidate (Burt Jones) 52.6-47.4 in the June 16 runoff, then absorbed the establishment — vs Bottoms' attackable mayoral record (the revived 2018 plane-ticket story). Cross-check: the two most recent LV polls are a tie in a D+11 environment, with GA's historic R understatement. Counter-signal logged: first GA gov primary since 2006 where D turnout exceeded R.
Opened
September 12, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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