ElectionActive

Republicans win the 2026 Georgia governor race

Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

47%

Polymarket

42%

Edge

+5.5pp

EHIQ above market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 47% on September 12, 2026 when Polymarket was at 42%.

Market has since moved down to 42% · -0.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 8 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market, fact-checked before stamping (19 claims: 11 confirmed, 6 softened, 0 dropped): the 2018 open-seat comp (Kemp won +1.4 under a D+8.6 wave with Trump at ~41%) adjusted for a worse 2026 environment puts R near 0.43; +~6pp for the nominee draw — Rick Jackson, the self-funding healthcare billionaire who beat Trump's AND Kemp's candidate (Burt Jones) 52.6-47.4 in the June 16 runoff, then absorbed the establishment — vs Bottoms' attackable mayoral record (the revived 2018 plane-ticket story). Cross-check: the two most recent LV polls are a tie in a D+11 environment, with GA's historic R understatement. Counter-signal logged: first GA gov primary since 2006 where D turnout exceeded R.

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026

Get an alert the moment this call resolves.

Every EHIQ call resolves on a date, in public. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.