Mary Peltola defeats Dan Sullivan (Alaska Senate 2026)

September 2026 read, desk call seeded by the register instrument and checked against the venues before writing. An incumbent finishing second in his own top-four primary by 8 points (Peltola 48.1%, Sullivan 42.7%, Aug 18) is the core fact; polling aggregates have the final ranked-choice round at Peltola +1.2 to +2.8 (ASR final-round 50.8-49.2; Data for Progress 53-47). Cook and DDHQ rate it toss-up — the raters are behind both venues. RCV structure favors Peltola's centrist transfer profile, and a second ballot entrant named Daniel J. Sullivan adds ballot-confusion leakage against the incumbent. Q2 money: Peltola $7M vs Sullivan $2M raised; SLF's $17M defense commitment is the bear case — it buys back ground in a state where TV still moves votes. EHIQ at 67%: ahead of the toss-up raters, roughly with Polymarket, and ahead of Kalshi's ~60% — the edge lives against the Kalshi leg specifically, and if the venues converge, the edge closes without the thesis changing. Resolves on the AP call of the final RCV round.