ElectionActive

Mary Peltola defeats Dan Sullivan (Alaska Senate 2026)

Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska US Senate election?

premise last verified 13h ago

EHIQ

63%

Kalshi

93%

gap vs market

-29.8pp

EHIQ below market

The number above is the forecast (polls only)

Debate language (commentary, no weight, unvalidated): Peltola +0.73 vs Sullivan on the TIQ/LAS momentum index (frozen scorer of the 2026-10-09 rescore, sha b4e34790; higher = stronger momentum language; not a probability). Source: 2026-10-15 debate, Debate for the State (Alaska Public Media); speaker-verified, 13 press quotes matched (Peltola 6, Sullivan 7). Status: unvalidated, no out-of-sample record; shown as commentary, no weight in the forecast.

The call vs the market, dated

Graded opening 67% (Sep 20) · Latest revision 63% (Oct 18). The opening is the graded value. Market at open: 60%.

Market has since moved up to 93% · +32.8pp toward EHIQ view

EHIQ vs market over time · 72 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Alaska: Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 2.2 points in the final ranked-choice round, the weighted average of 4 polls taken since early September (Peltola 51.1, Sullivan 48.9). Allowing for polling error the size Senate polls have run since 1998, that gives Peltola about a 63% chance. EHIQ 63%. No language read carries weight in this number.

1.2026-10-18Polls (the number): 4 polls, Sep 4-Oct 18, final ranked-choice round, weighted by recency and sample size. Peltola 51.1, Sullivan 48.9.
2.2026-10-18Win chance: a 2.2-point lead against a 6.5-point polling error (Senate polls since 1998) puts Peltola at 63%.

Opened

September 20, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026

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