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Peggy Flanagan (DFL) wins the 2026 Minnesota Senate election
Will the Democratic (DFL) nominee, Peggy Flanagan, win the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
72%
Edge
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The number above is the forecast (polls and structure)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 72% on October 18, 2026 when Polymarket was at 87%.
Market still at 87% · 0.0pp from open
Thesis
Minnesota's open Senate seat: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL) against former broadcaster Michele Tafoya (R), both nominated in the August 11 primary. The number comes from the polls. Eleven public polls since September 4 average Flanagan 50.7, Tafoya 46.9, a 3.8-point lead, and at a 6.5-point polling error that puts Flanagan at 72%. The market prices her higher; we have no evidence the market lacks, since this is a polls-only base with no EHIQ-specific input. No Flanagan-Tafoya debate has been scored, so there is no language read yet.
- 1.2026-10-18Polls (11, Sep 4 to Oct 18; 7-day half-life, sample-size weighted): Flanagan 50.7, Tafoya 46.9, margin +3.8. Newest: Trafalgar Oct 13-15, KSTP/SurveyUSA Oct 8-12.
- 2.2026-10-18Win probability: margin / 6.5-point polling error (FiveThirtyEight Senate error since 1998) gives Flanagan 72%.
- 3.2026-10-18Language: commentary only. No general-election debate listed as of Oct 18.
Opened
October 18, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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