← All calls
ElectionActive
2028 presidency — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
2%
(1-4%)
Edge
-3.2pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 2% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 5%.
Market has since moved down to 5% · -0.3pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
EHIQ register read: most personally anchored speaker in the corpus, but qualifies more specifics than any other primary candidate. Activist register — confident on identity, hedged on specifics — caps her at the progressive lane ceiling. Polymarket 5.45% prices her higher than EHIQ math suggests: ~3% nominated × ~25% wins general (general-election ceiling on progressive lane) ≈ 0.75%. SHORT mispricing.
- 1.AOC register read: highest personal-anchoring in the corpus paired with the highest qualifier rate of any candidate scored — confident on values, hedged on specifics.
- 2.Progressive lane ceiling ~25% in modern Dem primaries. Without consolidating moderate Dems she can't win nomination.
- 3.General-election profile: progressive register caps ceiling in suburban + Midwestern swing voters.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028