ElectionActive

2028 presidency — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?

EHIQ

(2-6%)

Polymarket

live market →

Edge

-3.1pp

EHIQ below market

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 4% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 5%.

Market has since moved up to 7% · +1.7pp toward EHIQ opposite

EHIQ vs market over time · 57 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

EHIQ register read: most personally anchored speaker in the corpus, but qualifies more specifics than any other primary candidate. Activist register — confident on identity, hedged on specifics — caps her at the progressive lane ceiling. SEM v1.2 build 2026-05-22 yields D-nomination 21.41% — surprisingly material structural-prob (driven by long-lead compression toward 50/50 from a 6-7% poll baseline, plus 0.35 withdrawal multiplier). Apples-to-apples presidency: 21.41% × ~25% general electability ceiling ≈ 5.35%. 50% damping from prior 2% baseline → 3.7% → round to 4%. Polymarket 5.45% now aligned, not "mispriced". BIMODAL: Senate path (Schumer succession) competes with presidential path — explicit withdrawal-prob model.

1.AOC register read: highest personal-anchoring in the corpus paired with the highest qualifier rate of any candidate scored — confident on values, hedged on specifics.
2.Progressive lane ceiling ~25% in modern Dem primaries. Without consolidating moderate Dems she can't win nomination.
3.General-election profile: progressive register caps ceiling in suburban + Midwestern swing voters.
4.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2): EHIQ 2% → 4% after SEM v1.2 build. New SEM file `sem_us_president_2028_aoc.json` / `.prov.json`. SEM v1.2 D-nomination = 21.41% (raw P 21.56% → long-lead compression x0.6 → 32.9% → withdrawal multiplier 0.35 → 21.4%). Apples-to-apples ≈ 21.41% × 25% gen ceiling ≈ 5.35%. 50% damping from prior 2% baseline → 4%. NOT TIQ-scored. INSUFFICIENT_POLLING flag (2028 D primary polls do not consistently include AOC). §4 OOS Phase C FAIL applies to broader engine. BIMODAL path-choice (Senate vs presidency) is dominant analytical uncertainty.

Opened

May 9, 2026

Expected resolution

November 7, 2028