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Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
45%
(35-55%)
Edge
-13.0pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 45% on September 2, 2026 when Polymarket was at 63%.
Market has since moved down to 58% · -5.3pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 17 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Cross-venue read, form table verified 2026-09-02: Spain won the World Cup (Yamal scored once in 8 matches); Kane delivered 73 club goals, the Bundesliga, the Pokal, the European Golden Shoe and 6 World Cup goals with England third. Every major sportsbook prices Kane at 13/8 to 7/4 (roughly 0.36 to 0.43 implied) while Polymarket pays 0.63. The venue overpays the favorite against the entire bookmaker consensus, and the vote historically fragments when more than one federation has a plausible candidate.
- 1.sportsbook consensus ~0.36-0.43 vs venue 0.63
- 2.Yamal 1 goal in 8 at the World Cup
- 3.vote fragments across 3+ candidates
Opened
September 2, 2026
Expected resolution
October 31, 2026
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