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Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
premise last verified 23h ago
EHIQ
45%
(35-55%)
gap vs market
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The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 45% (Sep 2). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 63%.
Market has since moved up to 68% · +4.8pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 54 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Cross-venue read, form table verified 2026-09-02: Spain won the World Cup (Yamal scored once in 8 matches); Kane delivered 61 club goals, the Bundesliga, the Pokal, the European Golden Shoe and 6 World Cup goals with England third. Every major sportsbook prices Kane at 13/8 to 7/4 (roughly 0.36 to 0.43 implied) while Polymarket pays 0.63. The venue overpays the favorite against the entire bookmaker consensus, and the vote historically fragments when more than one federation has a plausible candidate.
- 1.sportsbook consensus ~0.36-0.43 vs venue 0.63
- 2.Yamal 1 goal in 8 at the World Cup
- 3.vote fragments across 3+ candidates
Opened
September 2, 2026
Expected resolution
October 31, 2026
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