ElectionActive

Bernie Sanders endorses James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2

Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

22%

Polymarket

26%

Edge

-3.5pp

EHIQ below market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 22% on September 12, 2026 when Polymarket was at 26%.

Market has since moved down to 26% · -0.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 8 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market: Sanders' 2026 screen is explicit (Medicare for All, big money, Gaza) plus the candidate must seek it. Talarico passes one of three (populism), rejects M4A ('Medicare for Y'all'), is partial on Gaza, and runs coalition-rightward with Republican endorsers. Sanders skipped this race in the March primary when a test-passer (Crockett) was in it. Base rate ~10-15% for off-screen endorsements, raised to 0.22 by marquee status and seven weeks of unity pressure before early voting.

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

November 2, 2026

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