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Bernie Sanders endorses James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?
premise last verified 5h ago
EHIQ
22%
Polymarket
2%
gap vs market
+20.2pp
EHIQ above market
The number above is the forecast (polls only)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 22% (Sep 12). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 26%.
Market has since moved down to 2% · -24.2pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 90 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Machine proposal, blind to the market: Sanders' 2026 screen is explicit (Medicare for All, big money, Gaza) plus the candidate must seek it. Talarico passes one of three (populism), rejects M4A ('Medicare for Y'all'), is partial on Gaza, and runs coalition-rightward with Republican endorsers. Sanders skipped this race in the March primary when a test-passer (Crockett) was in it. Base rate ~10-15% for off-screen endorsements, raised to 0.22 by marquee status and seven weeks of unity pressure before early voting.
Opened
September 12, 2026
Expected resolution
November 2, 2026
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