ElectionActive

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

After the 2026 US midterms, will the composition be Republican Senate and Democratic House?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

45%

Polymarket

31%

Edge

+14.5pp

EHIQ above market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 45% on September 12, 2026 when Polymarket was at 37%.

Market has since moved down to 31% · -6.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 8 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market: generic ballot D+6.8 (9/11 aggregator average) converts to a 25-35 seat D House gain against a +3 threshold → P(D House) ≈ 0.82. Senate math: D nets ≈ +2 (NC, ME) but stalls in Trump +8 states (TX/OH/IA/AK) → P(R Senate) ≈ 0.60. The legs correlate through one environment, so joint = P(D House) − P(both D) = 0.82 − 0.37 ≈ 0.45. The split is the modal 2018 shape (D House +40, R Senate +2).

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026

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