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ElectionActive
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
After the 2026 US midterms, will the composition be Republican Senate and Democratic House?
no liveness subject (nothing to death-check)
Held — not derived from race calls; review date not recorded
EHIQ
45%
Polymarket
0%
gap vs market
+45.0pp
EHIQ above market
The number above is the forecast (polls only)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 45% (Sep 12). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 37%.
Market has since moved down to 0% · -37.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 90 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Machine proposal, blind to the market: generic ballot D+6.8 (9/11 aggregator average) converts to a 25-35 seat D House gain against a +3 threshold → P(D House) ≈ 0.82. Senate math: D nets ≈ +2 (NC, ME) but stalls in Trump +8 states (TX/OH/IA/AK) → P(R Senate) ≈ 0.60. The legs correlate through one environment, so joint = P(D House) − P(both D) = 0.82 − 0.37 ≈ 0.45. The split is the modal 2018 shape (D House +40, R Senate +2).
Opened
September 12, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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