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ElectionActive
Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
premise verified 23h ago
EHIQ
57%
Polymarket
0%
gap vs market
+57.0pp
EHIQ above market
The number above is the forecast (polls only)
Language: no read
The call vs the market, dated
Graded opening 57% (Sep 12). The opening is the graded value. Market at open (Polymarket): 45%.
Market has since moved down to 0% · -45.0pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 90 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Machine proposal, blind to the market: polls say a dead tie (Emerson early Sept Acton 46/45; Fox Aug R+2; aggregates RCP Acton +0.3 to R +0.8) — a tie in an R-lean state with the midterm penalty already priced. Fundamentals prior ~0.63 (Ohio gov runs ~R+12 vs national environment, 2018 calibration); weight polls 0.6 / fundamentals 0.4 → 0.55, +2 for Ramaswamy's 3:1 cash-on-hand edge and Trump endorsement → 0.57.
Opened
September 12, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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