ElectionActive

Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

premise not yet verified

EHIQ

57%

Polymarket

40%

Edge

+17.5pp

EHIQ above market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 57% on September 12, 2026 when Polymarket was at 45%.

Market has since moved down to 40% · -5.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 9 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market: polls say a dead tie (Emerson early Sept Acton 46/45; Fox Aug R+2; aggregates RCP Acton +0.3 to R +0.8) — a tie in an R-lean state with the midterm penalty already priced. Fundamentals prior ~0.63 (Ohio gov runs ~R+12 vs national environment, 2018 calibration); weight polls 0.6 / fundamentals 0.4 → 0.55, +2 for Ramaswamy's 3:1 cash-on-hand edge and Trump endorsement → 0.57.

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026

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