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ElectionActive
2028 presidency — Jon Ossoff
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
3%
(2-4%)
Edge
-0.9pp
within noise
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 3% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 4%.
Market has since moved down to 3% · -0.3pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Conditional on 2026 GA Senate retention (EHIQ 55% to retain). If he wins big in 2026, becomes credible 2028 dark horse. Polymarket 3.8% slightly overprices.
- 1.Path entirely conditional on 2026 Senate reelection. Margin matters: a comfortable win opens the lane; a narrow win or loss eliminates it.
- 2.Swing-state appeal + youth + 2020/2021 runoff brand.
- 3.Not yet EHIQ register-scored.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028