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2028 presidency — Jon Ossoff

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?

EHIQ
4%
(2-6%)
Polymarket
7%
live market →
Edge
-3.2pp
EHIQ below market

Upstream of markets

EHIQ called this at 4% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 4%.
Market has since moved up to 7% · +3.4pp toward EHIQ view
EHIQ vs market over time · 57 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
7%4%May 10Jul 5

Thesis

Conditional on 2026 GA Senate retention (EHIQ 62% to retain per senate-ga-ossoff-2026 entry). If he wins big in 2026, becomes credible 2028 dark horse. Polymarket 3.8% now ALIGNED with EHIQ post-SEM-build. SEM v1.2 D-nomination = 16.85% (poll baseline 2-3% Ossoff share × long-lead compression x0.6 + withdrawal multiplier 0.40 reflecting bimodal Senate-vs-presidency path conditional on 2026 outcome). Apples-to-apples presidency: 16.85% × ~35% general electability with first-term-Senator-jump-discount ≈ 5.9%. 50% damping from prior 2.5% baseline: 2.5 + 0.5*(5.9-2.5) ≈ 4.2% → 4%. Note: separate `sem_ga_senate_ossoff_2026.json` handles the 2026 GA Senate retention question (ensemble 82.36%).
  1. 1.Path entirely conditional on 2026 Senate reelection. Margin matters: a comfortable win opens the lane; a narrow win or loss eliminates it.
  2. 2.Swing-state appeal + youth + 2020/2021 runoff brand.
  3. 3.Not yet EHIQ register-scored at 2028-presidency level (2026 GA Senate corpus exists — DIFFERENT race-id).
  4. 4.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2): EHIQ 2.5% → 4% after SEM v1.2 build. New SEM file `sem_us_president_2028_ossoff.json` / `.prov.json` (RACE_ID = us-president-2028-dem-nominee; do NOT conflate with separate ga-senate-2026-general SEM). SEM v1.2 D-nomination = 16.85% (raw P 13.48% → long-lead compression x0.6 → 28.1% → withdrawal multiplier 0.40 for bimodal Senate-vs-presidency path → 16.85%). Apples-to-apples ≈ 16.85% × 35% gen electability ≈ 5.9%. 50% damping from prior 2.5% baseline → 4%. INSUFFICIENT_POLLING flag. Note: there IS a 2026-GA-Senate TIQ corpus for Ossoff but it is a DIFFERENT race-id and the ensemble script may attempt cross-race lastname merge — verify no contamination after ensemble run.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028